Analysis and Outlook of Q195 Wire Rod Price in 2024

Release time:

2024-12-24

Price Trends: In 2024, the price of Q195 wire rod showed a downward trend overall. For example, in the Shanghai market in March, the mainstream price of D6 specification Q195 wire rod was 4,580 yuan/ton, and by December 23 in the market, the price of Q195 high line Φ6.5 was around 3,480 yuan/ton12.

2024 Q195 Wire Rod Price Analysis

Price Trends: In 2024, the price of Q195 wire rod showed a downward trend overall. For example, in the Shanghai market in March, the mainstream price of D6 specification Q195 wire rod was 4,580 yuan/ton, and by December 23 in the market, the price of Q195 high line Φ6.5 was around 3,480 yuan/ton12.
Influencing Factors:
- Demand Weakness: After the Spring Festival, downstream demand was lower than expected, while production resumed, resulting in oversupply1.
- Cost Impact: The decline in upstream billet and black futures prices led to a decrease in the cost support of wire rod, causing its price to decline1.
- Policy and Macroeconomy: Tightening real estate policies and slower economic growth affected market confidence and demand for wire rod.

2024 Q195 Wire Rod Price Outlook

Market Uncertainties: The global economic slowdown and trade frictions may continue to affect the market demand for wire rod, bringing uncertainties to prices.
Potential for Recovery: With the introduction of policies to stabilize growth in some regions, infrastructure investment may increase, which may drive demand for Q195 wire rod in the later stage and support price stability or a slight rebound.

The market demand for Q195 rod in 2025 is expected to have the following changes:

Construction Industry

The demand from the construction industry may show a slight decline. Although there are policies to stabilize growth, the overall investment growth rate of infrastructure is expected to be relatively limited, and the new construction area may decrease by 7%-10% year-on-year, which will reduce the demand for Q195 rod used in construction to a certain extent12.

Manufacturing Industry

With the continuous transformation of China's economic structure, the proportion of steel used in manufacturing has been increasing, reaching nearly 40% by 2023. In 2025, the manufacturing industry such as automobiles, shipbuilding, and home appliances is expected to maintain a high growth trend. In addition, the new steel demand brought by new energy under the dual-carbon target and direct and indirect exports will also help increase the demand for Q195 rod in the manufacturing industry13.

Export

In 2025, the export volume of steel is expected to decrease by 960 million tons year-on-year. The re-election of the Trump administration may impact China's mechanical and electrical product exports, thereby affecting the indirect export of steel products. However, due to China's strong competitive advantage in the steel industry and the continuous promotion of the "Belt and Road Initiative", there is no need to be overly pessimistic about exports123.

Downstream Welded Pipe Industry

Some welded pipe production enterprises have production plans in 2025, which is expected to increase the demand for Q195 rod by the main downstream welded pipe industry and drive the overall demand to improve compared with 2024.